I have a six-sided die, with faces numbered one to six, as normal. I roll it and get a result of four. Are you amazed? How amazed do you feel? I then tell you that I am going to roll it again, and that this time I will roll a three. I roll it and get a three. The chance that any given face will end upmost after a roll is one in six. The chance of my rolling a four is one in six. The chance of my rolling a three is one in six. Therefore, neither roll was more improbable than the other. Would you, do you think, be more amazed at the second roll than the first?
What are the true chances of the two rolls? Pick and click.